Global Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections & Mitigation Potential: 2020-2080
The EPA technical report, Global Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections & Mitigation Potential: 2020-2080 (EPA 430-R-25-002), provides a consistent and comprehensive set of historical and projected estimates of emissions and technical and economic mitigation estimates of non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources for 195 countries. This report is the latest installment of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) non-CO2 GHG assessments. The analysis provides information that can be used to understand national contributions of GHG emissions, historical progress on reductions, and mitigation opportunities. This new dataset includes updates to both emission projections and mitigation opportunities for all countries and all non-CO2 GHG emitting sources.
In addition to updating input assumptions based on recent data, many sources have also received updates to their methodology. The DayCent model now provides estimates of mitigation potential for croplands, rice, and grasslands. The wastewater sector has expanded mitigation opportunities, and renewable natural gas pathways have been added to the livestock, wastewater, and landfill, among other changes.
The updated projections show a similar level of overall non-CO2 GHG emissions by 2050 as the 2019 report, but the share of those emissions from the industrial processes sector has increased, while emissions from the waste sector have decreased.
While the overall percentage of non-CO2 GHG emissions that are mitigatable is similar to the previous update, the distribution of those mitigatable emissions has changed. Due to more mitigation efforts being adopted worldwide, the percentage of emissions that are mitigatable at no-cost has decreased from 7% to 5% in 2030.
Globally, total mitigation potential is estimated at 27% in 2030, growing to 33% in 2050. In 2030, CH4 emissions represent the greatest opportunity for low or no-cost mitigation, including 55% of natural gas and oil systems CH4 emissions and 65% of coal mine CH4 emissions. The croplands and landfills sources make up over 68% of all low or no-cost mitigation potential in 2030. By 2050 refrigeration and air conditioning will take over as the largest source of no-cost emission reductions, with 28% of mitigation potential available at no-cost.
Download the Report and Appendices
2025 Report
The report data annex includes all emission projections and mitigation data tables. The data annex ZIP file includes two CSV files and represents the full set of modeled results.
File Global Non-CO2 GHG Emission Projections & Mitigation Potential: 2020-2080 - Data Annex (zip)
Access the Non-CO2 Data Tool
The accompanying data set to this report is available through the Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Data Tool. This is a data exploration tool for querying and visualizing the non-CO2 GHG projections and mitigation assessments compiled in the report.
Methane Mitigation and the Global Methane Initiative (GMI)
The non-CO2 report finds that CH4 emissions are projected to continue growing through 2050 under a business as usual scenario. CH4 emissions also represent the greatest opportunity for low or no-cost mitigation, including 55% of total global natural gas and oil systems CH4 emissions and 65% of total global coal mine CH4 emissions. The Global Methane Initiative (GMI) is an international public-private partnership focused on reducing barriers to the recovery and use of methane as a valuable energy source.