NCEE Seminar: Job Loss, Selective Migration, and the Accumulation of Disadvantage: Evidence from Appalachia’s Coal Country

Virtual Seminar
Washington, DC 20460
United States

Contact: Ann Wolverton, 202-566-2278 ([email protected])

Presenters: Eleanor Krause, Harvard University

Description: How do shocks in one generation reverberate into the next? Many historically coal-dependent communities in Central Appalachia have long been characterized by deep poverty, limited employment opportunities, and high rates of public assistance. Recurrent shocks to coal employment have driven large population declines, which - combined with the direct economic consequences of job loss - have amplified many of these qualities in Appalachia's coal country. In this paper, I present new evidence on the magnitude of population and economic loss resulting from recent declines in coal mining employment, and I illustrate how these losses are partially explained by the persistent negative consequences of historical employment shifts in the region. Historical shocks and the selective nature of subsequent population mobility collectively altered the demographic and economic profile of certain coal counties by dramatically reducing the number of skilled workers in the economy. Consistent with the predictions from a model in which the evolution of local economic activity is dependent upon the number of skilled workers, I find that adverse outcomes from contemporary coal shocks are more acute in counties that experienced larger declines in college-educated adults due to exogenous, historical demand shifts. I show that, while young and skilled populations adjust to employment shifts via migration, relatively immobile residents living in exposed counties experience the brunt of contemporary job loss via suppressed employment and wages and increased reliance on transfer payments.

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